Here I attempt to summarize reasons why we need to take this COVID19 seriously and stay put, for now at least.
1. COVID19 is highly contagious
CDC says (as of 3/20/20) the virus itself can survive in air for 3 hours, and on surface, 3 days or even longer. It is tougher than many other virus. Also, it can infect others through particles or inhalation. Incubation time is 3-14 days. Even if the patient number itself look small compared with seasonal flu, this potential for infection explosion should not be underestimated.
We have seen cases of cluster infection in church (Korea), cruise ship (Japan), and in hospitals. Cases of community infection with unknown source are increasing. Limiting gathering is not a bad idea.
2. COVID19 is a little more deadly than originally thought.
This "a little more" can make a big impact on the numbers. And current death rates for COVID19 are higher than those for seasonal flu.
Among "infected" people, 80% show mild symptoms (Mild means you do not land in hospital bed. It can be hard enough). The remaining 20% find themselves in hospital. 14% is categorized moderate, and 6% severe, mainly with pneumonia.
3. Your age affects the outcome. Some are more vulnerable.
Being young can give you more resistance. But the infection can still be damaging to lung, and there is still a chance of death. Being old and/or having preexisting conditions (diabetes, heart disease, etc) shoots up your chance of death.
4. People with mild (or no) symptoms can walk around and infect others.
Combined with 3, "you are okay but your mom or grandpa may not" situation can occur. You might be literally killing others by being careless/carefree.
5. Too many patients at once can overwhelm hospitals.
Here comes the notion of "flatten the curve". Left unmanaged, number of the patients can increase exponentially, and some of them will end up in ICU or emergency room, while their capacity is limited (both manpower and equipment). In such a case, they'll have to triage patients. It is war zone-like emergency situation and you may be left there, under-treated.
By imposing quarantine, the government is trying to reduce the number of patients showing up in hospitals at once, so that doctors and nurses can still do their job.
6. Therapies are being tested. You'd be the test subject.
COVID19 is a new member of coronavirus family that caused SARS. No vaccine is available, capacity for the test is still small, and therapeutics are still being tested. These drugs in hopeful news (including anti-malaria drugs, flu medicine, and anti-HIV drugs) are tested under assumption of anti-SARS or other antiviral medications may work.
On high demand, FDA quickly
Even if you are eventually going to get COVID19, you might want to receive a tried-and-tested, established treatment.
Then, you need to buy yourself some time with hand washing and isolation. Don't catch it now.
7. Money. Current treatment can be expensive.
As Doctors do not have established therapeutics, current treatment is mostly for symptomatic relief, or for assisting failing organs for severe cases. And this infection can drag on for weeks. You may stay in hospital for a long time.
How insurance companies handle COVID19 infection is not established yet. In America, with for-profit healthcare and tricky insurance system, you might end up with filing medical bankruptcy.
You would want to wait until they find a "cure" and sort system out before getting this virus.
Reasons 5-7 together say that our system is not in place. We aren't exactly ready for this pandemic yet.
8. We don't know enough about this virus and its long term effects.
COVID19 is a new virus, and we know little about what it can do to your body in long term.
Fascinating facts in virology include that some virus can possibly cause (a) cancer (e.g., RSV, HTLV, HVB, HVC), (b) dementia (e.g., HSV1), (c) make you infertile (e.g., mumps), and (d) destroy your immune system (e.g., HIV).
Investigating on possible long-term effects of COVID19 infection is upcoming researchers' job.
We don't have to be pessimistic, but dealing with an Unknown is unpredictable and can be scary. Error on the side of caution if you can. Be careful.
With high contagiousness, this virus may even spread among a majority of people, like Merkel said. The projection may not be outlandish, as 60-70% of us are positive for HSV1 (the "cold sore" virus).
In coming years, we may eventually learn to live with this virus or even learn to ignore deaths as a part of life, much like we do to seasonal flu.
But for now, it would be wise to try not to catch it. Delay the spread.
