A topic happened to come up during the chat was, "we can tell which beginner will be good and which one feels like hopeless."
Does it sound too harsh? Probably. But this kind of judgement happens all the time. For dances or physical arts with professional track (e.g. ballet, acrobat, gymnastics), the judgement is made quite early in life by others.
But let's suspend judgement on the judgement for thoughts' sake, and let's think what makes the difference between hopefuls and ...well, non-hopefuls.
Curiously enough, my thoughts on this subject is heavily influenced by a question in my work, "how cancer comes into being". At first there are apparently the same cells. Some of them later become cancer. What makes the difference?
Current answer for the cancer question is "genetics, epigenetics (modifications imposed on genome by environmental factors) and environmental factors. They occur over time, so age is an important factor as well."
I believe the same for dancing. Genetics, epigenetics and environmental factors, and your age (or life/developmental stage), all affect how you develop as a dancer.
In the case of dance, "genetics" counts for a dancer's appearance, physical build and ability, and for "natural" competence for a certain moves.
"Environment" affects whether the person has access, education or experience for the dance. That includes people---friends, partners, coaches and cheering squad. His/her knowledge about a dance is usually coming from the environment. Born in Argentina may have given you a better access and education for Tango, for example.
"Epigenetics" is like your thought habits, formed inside you as a result of your environment and yourself. Efforts are something you make or choose to make. It occurs on your side and is a part of epigenetics (as you choose to make). As 10,000 hour rule asserts, it can be critical. If you are gifted with good genetics and have a good environment, it would be easy for you to recognize it and make efforts to be even better. But even with good genetics and environment, without efforts your gift could be wasted.
Then age. This is somewhat of a white elephant in dance teaching industry. Your performance is not always dictated by calendar age. But chances are, a 14 years old likely acquires and retains new moves easier than a 40-years old. When you are 70 years of age, you do not move like the time you were 20 years of age. The difference is due to the developmental stage and speed of neuro-muscular learning. Or simply due to physical change that has taken place.
So my tentative answer to the question "genetics, environment, or efforts?" is "all of them, plus your age".
When we say we can predict which one would grow, we are making judgement mostly on genetics (that can be seen and felt) and age.
That means, we are not counting on how much they love the dance and how much efforts they will make. We also don't know what kind of environment they would be in or would move in. Education is relatively easy to get, and we do not put much weight on how much they know at the moment in the prediction.
So our predictions can be defied. There have been many dancers who do not feel like "the gifted", but they can dance, teach and compete successfully nonetheless. They were smart enough to make up with their shortcomings by something else.
Although I have confidence in my intuitive judgement for genetics, I cannot predict their environment and epigenetic factors (their efforts and dedication), and social-level success is another layer of dancing.
You do not have to be the top-notch gifted dancer to be a successful dancer. It is an important thing to remember for everybody.
[What shape will you draw in this chart?]
Another manuscript is almost done. Hoping to send it out soon. I got to increase research output this year. Systems biology approach is giving me a pile of interesting datasets, and I am having so much fun.
